One of the most useful foresight conversations I have had began with a question to a large manufacturer that serves the trucking industry. I asked what we needed to understand about the company’s next five to ten years.
Their answer took us into the risks they were watching across the industry. We talked about driver accidents, route mapping, driverless vehicles, rising insurance costs, and the condition of roads and railways. They needed to anticipate how those issues could affect their customers and what the company would need to be ready to do.
They described work already underway to develop software and integrate secure AI systems to help them anticipate changes and manage risk. They were making decisions now about capabilities they expected to need in the years ahead.
According to the American Trucking Associations, trucks moved 72.7% of U.S. freight by weight in 2024. Changes in trucking affect businesses well beyond the companies operating the trucks.
My radar went up immediately from a chamber policy perspective. What did this mean for the positions we were supporting at the state and national levels? Were we asking the right questions about the future of transportation? What assumptions in our policy work needed another look?
Let what you hear change the questions you ask
That conversation is an example I carry into my work through Clayton Rose Group. A company was examining changes in its customers’ industry, and its answer gave me a reason to examine the work I was responsible for.
For the manufacturer, the questions involved risk and future customer needs. For policy work, they could include how road investments, safety expectations, and the use of new technology might need to be considered together. Before recommending a position, we would need to understand more.
We could ask how different rates of adoption of driverless technology might affect the industry’s needs. What if the technology advances faster than expected? What if adoption takes longer while insurance costs continue to rise? Which needs would remain important under either possibility?
Those questions help us test whether our assumptions are useful across several possible futures. They also help identify whose knowledge we need before making a decision. The manufacturer gave me a starting point for further conversations.
Give the learning a place in the meeting
This is the kind of work I encourage organizations to make room for in staff and board meetings. Ask people to bring something they are hearing from customers, employees, or partners that could affect a decision ahead.
Then spend time on what it could mean. Which assumption in our plan does it challenge? What would we need to learn before changing direction? Is there a practical step we can take now that would help us prepare?
Agree on who will follow up and when the issue will return. As new information comes in, revisit the assumption and consider whether the decision still makes sense. That is how foresight becomes part of the work.
The manufacturer conversation reminds me how much we can learn when we ask beyond the immediate concern. In my consulting work, I want to help organizations develop that discipline and use what they hear to make better decisions about their own future.
